AI Expectations and Outcomes

BEA researchers compare U.S. businesses’ expected AI use with later reported adoption using Census Business Trends and Outlook Survey data from 2023–26. Adoption first lagged expectations, then briefly exceeded them, and more recently tracked expected rates.

Using integrated BEA-BLS industry data, the paper finds some evidence that firms’ stated AI motivations align with production changes and that AI use cases are associated with greater R&D intensity. The authors say the connection between motivations and measured outcomes remains unclear; structural changes may be planned before appearing in outcome data.