College costs are trending lower than a decade ago

Using the College Board's annual pricing report, Douglas-Gabriel finds that inflation-adjusted net attendance cost for in-state freshmen at public colleges is estimated at $21,660 in 2026, 14% below the level ten years earlier. Private nonprofit net cost is estimated at $38,540, 9% lower than 2016; sticker tuition rose more slowly than inflation at many institutions.

The College Board collected data from 2,913 schools and points to grants, scholarships, stronger public funding and competition for a smaller high-school graduating class. The data complicate the simple claim that every dimension of college cost is rising, while leaving student debt, local access and non-tuition costs in view.