No Widespread Displacement, but the AI Employment Gap for Young Workers Has Widened to 19%

Using ADP payroll data revised through June 2026, the Stanford Digital Economy Lab finds no broad economy-wide employment displacement attributable to AI. But employment among workers ages 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations is about 19% below the estimated counterfactual trend. The clearest effect is slower hiring rather than a wave of separations.

The authors frame early-career workers as a potential early signal: entry-level jobs can be the first rung through which people gain experience, income and opportunity. The finding is specific to exposed occupations and an estimated counterfactual, not evidence that AI has already caused mass unemployment.